Predicting the Academy Awards 2024 — Part one!

By Stephen Craig/Staff Contributor

The Academy Awards: the awards ceremony we all like to make fun of, yet still watch every year. Founded by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), the Academy Awards recognizes exceptional talent in films. However, when watching the Academy Awards, AMPAS members tend to vote based a star’s legacy and how much studios campaign rather than for the quality of the films themselves.

 

In other words, it is easy to make objective predictions for who or what will win each reward. So, here are our predictions for who will win.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Let’s be honest; what other director should win Best Director other than Christopher Nolan?

 

In Oppenheimer, Nolan managed to tell a story about a very controversial topic without making it controversial, challenged the audience’s view of good and evil, and pushed the limits of practical effects. With that — and given that he is one of the few directors whose films are anticipated by the general audience — no other director can come close to beating him. It is less a question of whether he will win Best Director, and more of why he has not received it sooner.

 

Best Actor: Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

When determining the best actor or actress, the important thing to look at is how long they have acted and how irreplaceable they are. With this criteria, it was excruciatingly difficult to predict who would most likely win Best Actor. 

 

In the end, it came down to Bradley Cooper or Jeffery Wright. If the decision is based solely on their acting ability, it would be a tie. However, Bradley Cooper has one thing going for him: he is the actor and director of Maestro, which makes it harder to act well but also gives him more incentive to give it his all. Coupled with the fact that Bradley Cooper has had major cultural significance, he is most suited to win Best Actor.

 

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone (Killer of the Flower Moon)

 Before we go further, let’s state the elephant in the room. It is shocking that Margot Robbie did not even get a nomination for Best Actress.

 

That being said, Lily Gladstone is the only logical choice for Best Actress. While Emma Stone is close, she has already won an Oscar. Lily Gladstone, however, captures the struggles and determination of the Native Americans to fight for their land. It also helps that she is the first Native American nominated for Best Actress. Considering AMPAS’s push to award more diverse groups of people, Lily Gladstone will probably win Best Actress.

 

 

 

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) 

For Best Supporting Actor, it is obvious that no other nominee will get close to beating Robert Downey Jr. Even if his role in Oppenheimer is not the best, he has had such a powerful impact throughout his career that it is time for him to finally get recognition at the Oscars.

 

Best Supporting Actress:  Da’vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Best Supporting Actress was the hardest award to predict. Almost all of the actresses have not been acting long enough to have an edge, and they have no significant differences in their impact or their roles.

 

So, let’s go out on a limb and say that Da’vine Joy Randolph will win, since she has had some cultural influence, and since most other Best Supporting Actress winners acted in films with little to no chance of winning Best Picture.

 

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)

While there are some beautiful scenes in Maestro, every shot is vital in Oppenheimer, and the cinematography captures the awe, and yet fear, of how one man’s invention could have destroyed the world. 

 

Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Film editing is more than putting a bunch of clips together; it combines transitions, pacing, graphics, special effects, color correction, and imagination to make the story come alive on screen. Oppenheimer is the clear winner. With innovations in practical effects, perfect pacing, cool transitions, and creative ways to express the suspense of the situation, no other nominee will be able to come close to beating it. 

 

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)

American Fiction is the only nominee where good writing was crucial for its success. Luckily, it managed to pull off its controversial topic in a humorous way. And with AMPAS’s recent trend of awarding African American films, American Fiction has the best chance to win.

 

Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)

The Holdovers, in my opinion, had the funniest writing, AMPAS usually does not pick comedies for Best Screenplay awards. Therefore, Anatomy of a Fall is the most likely to win. It is the most well-written drama of the nominees, and it has accurate depictions of a trial, which is one of AMPAS’s unusual factors for choosing Best Screenplay.