Predicting the Academy Awards 2024 — the Final Section!

By STEPHEN CRAIG/ Staff Writer

The Academy Awards: the awards ceremony we all like to make fun of, yet still watch every year. Founded by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), the Academy Awards recognizes exceptional talent in films. However, when watching the Academy Awards, AMPAS members tend to vote based a star’s legacy and how much studios campaign rather than for the quality of the films themselves.

In other words, it is easy to make objective predictions for who or what will win each reward. So, here are our predictions for who will win.

Best Picture 

And now, the moment you have all been waiting for. The Best Picture award is given to the film that the academy believes displays the best cinematography, writing, acting, directing, and editing overall and has the most significant cultural impact.

 

Unlike the previous awards, each member uses preferential voting. In preferential voting, each member ranks each nominee they have seen from the best to the worst, and the film with over 50% of first-place votes wins the Best Picture award. If none of the nominees meet these criteria in the initial round, the one with the least first-place votes is disqualified, and the process continues until one meets it.

 

For this prediction, rather than only predicting the film that will win, all the nominees will be ranked preferential from the least to the most likely to win.

 

10: Barbie

Barbie received a nomination more because it was popular than because it contributed to the film industry. Even if it somehow won Best Picture, it would do more harm for the film than good; audiences would see Barbie as another film that stole Best Picture from better nominees. Even if Barbie is a quality film, at the end of the day, it was made to sell more toys rather than compete at the Academy Awards.

 

9: Past Lives 

Past Lives is a foreign film that did not even get a nomination for Best International Film. If Past Lives were to win Best Picture, why was it not good enough to win Best International Film? Whether or not it was good enough to win Best Picture in the first place, it seems like AMPAS has unintentionally decided the fate of this film. 

 

8: The Holdovers

It is extremely rare for a Christmas film to be in the Academy Awards, let alone win an award. In fact, no Christmas film has won Best Picture, and it is doubtful that The Holdovers will change that. The issue with Christmas films winning Best Picture is that the nominees are announced after the holiday season, making it difficult to get into the mood of watching a Christmas film after Christmas. The Holdovers should hope that AMPAS is not full of grinches; otherwise, it will be a rough road to win.

 

7: Anatomy of a Fall

Originally, Anatomy of a Fall was ranked with Past Lives for not being nominated for Best International Film. However, after learning it was not nominated because France did not submit it for that award, it stands a chance of winning Best Picture. It also gets a boost for being nominated for best director.

 

6: The Zone of Interest

And here we have yet another foreign film nominated for Best Picture. Unlike the other international films, which would break the fabric of the universe if they won, The Zone of Interest at least has a chance to win Best International Film. However, it does not have much better odds than Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall because it is a foreign film. Foreign films have struggled to win Best Picture over the years, with Parasite being the only foreign film to win. The Zone of Interest managed to win the battle, but we have to wait and see if it will win the war.

 

5: American Fiction

Even a decade ago, a satirical film that pokes fun at stereotypes and America’s hypocrisy could never win Best Picture. But in today’s society, American Fiction has a decent chance of winning. Unlike in the film, it was not tailor-made to please AMPAS or include the typical tropes associated with Oscar winners. However, considering AMPAS’s push for diversity, it can be the film that takes everyone by surprise. American Fiction‘s dream of winning can become a reality if the cards are played right.

 

4: Maestro

With the star power of Bradley Cooper, the backing of the legendary director/producer Steven Spielberg, and being based on a historic composer in entertainment (Leonard Bernstein), Maestro was bound to be nominated for Best Picture. The film was nominated for every major category except for Best Director. Given all these factors, Maestro may have just struck the right chords to take home the grand prize. 

 

3: Poor Things

A reimagining of Frankenstein that disturbingly reflects today’s society can potentially win Best Picture. It has a surprising amount of nominations, clever commentary on the progress of science and human rights, and the most unexpected reflection of today’s society than any other nominee. It would be brain-dead to assume that Poor Things has no shot at winning Best Picture.

 

2: Killers of the Flower Moon

A film about the struggles of Native Americans against the oil industry, yet no use of the white savior cliche; what’s not to love? Killers of the Flower Moon has a star-studded cast, tremendous cultural significance, plenty of major award nominations, and won Best Film in several other award ceremonies. How could it not win? Well, only one other nominee can blow up Killer of the Flower Moon‘s chance of winning Best Picture.

 

1: Oppenheimer

Honestly, there is no good reason why Oppenheimer should not win Best Picture. It is just shy of being the most nominated film in the Academy Awards’ history. It is set around World War II, demonstrates how risky films can still be profitable, and started a phenomenon never before seen in film history. Most importantly, however, it is the biggest shot a Christopher Nolan film has to win an Oscar. Oppenheimer is more than a film that contributes to cultural significance; it is the film that needs to be remembered for generations to come.